The Chargers host divisional foe, the Denver Broncos, in what promises to be an exciting TNF matchup. The Chargers are currently quite limited defensively and have been sorely missing CB Cam Hart, in the last 5 weeks their defense ranks 23rd in EPA per play and 22nd in Success Rate overall, in fact they are bottom 10 in all run and passing metrics - hitting a major stretch of regression after a strong start to the season. On the other hand, the Broncos have arguably been the league’s best defense in the past month plus, they are ranked 1st in dropback EPA allowed, 3rd in dropback success rate allowed, 2nd in rushing EPA allowed and 1st in rushing success rate allowed. The Broncos defense is presented with a great matchup against a very limited Chargers set of receivers, and defensive player of the year candidate - Pat Surtain II, should be able to lock up their best WR - McConkey. Despite all this, by market ratings the Chargers are still being ranked above the Broncos defensively, hence providing us with value and a good sell high opportunity on the Chargers defense.

On offense, the Chargers have been without their best running back the past 3 games due to an injury suffered against the Ravens, and their offensive metrics have absolutely plummeted as they rely on establishing the run in order to open up their passing game and are now facing a higher rate of long 2nd and 3rd downs. In the past 5 weeks, the Chargers offense ranks bottom 7 in EPA and bottom 5 in success rate. This also coincides with QB Justin Herbert's reduced mobility and lack of scrambling due to an ankle injury. This all spells trouble against a stout defense that is able to generate pressure down the interior - which is the Chargers’ offensive line main weakness in protection. As for the Broncos offense, they will be looking to avenge a poor outing in the first matchup between the two sides in week 6, that saw them score 0 points in the first half and having to play catch up for the rest of the game. The two teams have trended in opposite directions since and rookie QB Bo Nix is a much more complete and developed player that can take advantage of a reeling Chargers defense.

At this moneyline price of 2.30 there is an implied probability of 43.5% - but our models and analysis view this game to be much tighter, closer to the 50/50 range - hence leading us to make a bet on both the +3 and the ML with a sizeable edge.