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NBA Betting Insights Monday 31st March
The most pivotal matchup dynamic this evening will revolve around perimeter shooting. Indiana currently ranks 6th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage, and they are coming off a performance where they connected on just 14 of 42 attempts from deep. Facing a Kings defense that sits at the bottom of the league in both opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 3-point makes allowed, this sets up as a favourable scenario for the Pacers to rediscover their touch from distance.
by Malachi
SACRAMENTO KINGS @ INDIANA PACERS
Player News
Out: B. Mauthrin, D. Carter, J. LaRavia
Questionable: N/a
Market
Opening: -4.5 IND / 235.5
Current: -4.5 IND / 234.5
Recent Form
SAC L10: 3-7 SU / 3-7 ATS / 5-5 OU
IND L10: 7-3 SU / 3-7 ATS / 6-4 OU
Trends
SAC: 7-11 SU as away underdogs / 13-22-2 ATS after a loss
IND: 18-12 SU after a loss / 20-5 SU as home favourites
Analysis
The Pacers welcome the Kings to Indiana as they aim to rebound from a recent loss to the Thunder—a contest in which they entered as sizeable underdogs. Similarly, the Kings are also seeking to regain form after suffering a heavy 30-point defeat to the Magic, managing just 91 points in that outing. Notably, Indiana has not suffered consecutive losses since early February, positioning this as a favourable opportunity for them to respond strongly as home favourites.
The Pacers secured a dominant 122-95 victory in the first meeting between these sides back in late December, played in Sacramento. In that game, the Kings featured De’Aaron Fox, who is no longer with the team. His replacement, Zach LaVine, is expected to start tonight. The Pacers' lineup remains largely unchanged from that encounter, with the exception of Bennedict Mathurin’s absence. In the prior matchup, Indiana shot an impressive 43.6% from beyond the arc—an outcome that could be replicated given Sacramento’s continued struggles on the perimeter, where they rank last in the league in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
The most pivotal matchup dynamic this evening will revolve around perimeter shooting. Indiana currently ranks 6th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage, and they are coming off a performance where they connected on just 14 of 42 attempts from deep. Facing a Kings defense that sits at the bottom of the league in both opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 3-point makes allowed, this sets up as a favourable scenario for the Pacers to rediscover their touch from distance. However, the Kings do hold a potential counterbalance in their interior defense—ranking in the top nine league-wide in points allowed in the paint. This could disrupt the Pacers’ rhythm, as Indiana relies heavily on interior scoring and sits 8th in the league in paint points per game.
While we do not have an official position on the spread or total, the stylistic profiles of both teams—each favouring a high-tempo approach and eager to bounce back from disappointing defeats—suggest a high-scoring contest may be in store.
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Player News
Out: M. Kleber
Questionable: N/a
Market
Opening: -3.5 LAL / 227
Current: -3.5 LAL / 225.5
Recent Form
HOU L10: 9-1 SU / 4-6 ATS / 7-2-1 OU
LAL L10: 5-5 SU / 6-4 ATS / 7-3 OU
Trends
HOU: 5-10 SU as away underdogs / 21-14-1 ATS on the road
LAL: 22-6 SU as home favourites / 25-18-1 ATS after a win
Analysis
The Lakers welcome the Rockets to Los Angeles in a high-stakes Western Conference matchup with significant playoff implications. Fresh off a win over the Grizzlies, the Lakers currently occupy the 4th seed in the West, while the Rockets sit firmly in 2nd place, bolstered by an impressive run of form in recent weeks. All signs point toward a tightly contested affair between two postseason contenders.
This marks the second of three scheduled regular-season meetings between these teams. The Rockets claimed victory in the initial matchup back in early January, winning 119-115 on their home floor. It is worth noting that Luka Doncic was not yet a member of the Lakers at that time—his presence tonight could be a pivotal factor in shifting the offensive balance in favour of Los Angeles. In the previous contest, Houston asserted dominance in the paint, outscoring the Lakers 52-40 in that area, while also pulling down 18 offensive rebounds compared to the Lakers' 10.
The most critical matchup element to monitor once again lies in the interior. The Lakers have consistently ranked in the bottom ten league-wide in paint defense throughout the season. Conversely, the Rockets are renowned for their fluid ball movement and ability to exploit gaps in the interior—particularly through the play of Alperen Sengun. With Houston ranking inside the top ten in paint scoring, and already demonstrating success in this department in their earlier head-to-head meeting, this facet could again tilt in their favour.
While we are not placing an official wager on this matchup, our lean would be toward the Lakers in this revenge spot. Under the guidance of the highly analytical coach JJ Redick, the Lakers have proven capable of making strong tactical adjustments. Furthermore, this is a favourable situational setup, as the Lakers hold a 22-6 straight-up record when listed as home favourites this season.