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NBA Betting Insights Thursday 27th March
The Kings have exhibited improved three-point shooting at home, averaging 37.5% from beyond the arc, a significant improvement over their road performances. This, combined with the potential challenges the Trail Blazers may face in their first road game after a homestand, suggests that Sacramento could establish an early scoring advantage.
by Malachi
ACEPICKS LEANS
Heat ML
Lakers -3.5
Kings -5.5
ATLANTA HAWKS @ MIAMI HEAT
Player News
Out: C. Capela
Questionable: A. Burks, D. Robinson
Market
Opening: -1 MIA / 229
Current: -2 MIA / 226
Recent Form
ATL: 7-3 SU / 7-3 ATS / 6-3-1 OU
MIA: 2-8 SU / 4-6 ATS / 4-6 OU
Trends
ATL: 15-21 SU after a loss / 26-19 SU in conference games
MIA: 13-9 SU as home favourites / 21-16 to the under as favourites
Analysis
The Miami Heat will host the Atlanta Hawks, aiming to extend their recent success after securing victories in their last two outings. This marks a significant improvement following one of their most challenging stretches this season. Conversely, the Hawks seek to rebound from a recent 7-point defeat to the Houston Rockets.
In the current regular-season series, the Hawks lead 2-1. Notably, the home team has emerged victorious in each encounter. The most recent matchup in Miami saw the Heat prevail with a 131-109 win. During that game, the Heat showcased exceptional three-point shooting, connecting on 54% from beyond the arc, capitalizing on the Hawks' vulnerabilities in perimeter defense.
Miami has demonstrated a marked improvement in three-point shooting during home games, boasting a 38.2% success rate from the perimeter, placing them among the top five in the league. In contrast, their three-point accuracy drops to 36.2% on the road, underscoring the significance of home-court advantage for their role players.
Furthermore, the Heat are anticipated to leverage their proficiency in limiting opponents' free-throw opportunities. They lead the league in both fewest free-throw makes and attempts allowed per game, exemplifying their disciplined defensive approach. This presents a challenge for the Hawks, who rank seventh in the league for free-throw attempts per game, as their usual advantage in this area may be neutralized by Miami's stringent defense.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ CHICAGO BULLS
Player News
Out: R. Hachimura, M. Kleber, T. Jones
Questionable: L. Ball, J. Giddey, N. Vucevic
Market
Opening: -3.5 LAL / 238.5
Current: -4 LAL / 237.5
Recent Form
LAL L10: 4-6 SU / 5-5 ATS / 8-2 OU
CHI L10: 8-2 SU / 9-1 ATS / 6-4 OU
Trends
LAL: 7-4 SU on no rest / 29-14 SU after a win
CHI: 8-16 SU as home underdogs / 11-20 SU after a win
Analysis
The Chicago Bulls return to their home court following a six-game road trip to host the Los Angeles Lakers, who aim to avenge a recent 146-115 defeat suffered merely four days prior. The Lakers enter this contest on the second night of a back-to-back, having played just last evening in Indiana. Notably, the Lakers have demonstrated resilience under such circumstances this season, securing victories in seven of their eleven games played without rest. Conversely, the Bulls have struggled in the role of home underdogs, posting an 8-16 record in such scenarios.
Reflecting on their previous matchup, the Bulls dominated the interior, outscoring the Lakers 74-42 in points in the paint—a significant disparity that the Lakers will undoubtedly seek to address. Under the strategic guidance of head coach JJ Redick, renowned for his analytical acumen, the Lakers are expected to scrutinize game footage meticulously and implement effective adjustments.
In that same game, the Bulls exhibited exceptional accuracy from beyond the arc, shooting 46.3% from three-point range. However, they average just 35.5% from three-point territory in home games, suggesting a potential regression to the mean in this contest. The Lakers, on the other hand, have been formidable from long distance, ranking in the top five for three-point percentage over the past ten games. Defensively, they have been equally impressive, placing in the top six for opponent three-point percentage allowed.
Furthermore, the Lakers are anticipated to capitalize on pick-and-roll situations in this matchup. They rank in the 86th percentile offensively when utilizing the roll man in pick-and-roll plays. The burgeoning synergy between Luka Doncic and center Jaxson Hayes has been instrumental in this success. The Bulls, who rank in the bottom six in defending the roll man, may encounter challenges in effectively containing this dynamic duo.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS @ SACRAMENTO KINGS
Player News
Out: D. Ayton, R. Williams, J. Grant
Questionable: D. Carter, J. LaRavia, M. Monk, T. Camara
Market
Opening: -5.5 SAC / 226.5
Current: -6 SAC / 225.5
Recent Form
POR L10: 4-6 SU / 5-5 ATS / 4-6 OU
SAC L10: 2-8 SU / 3-7 ATS / 6-4 OU
Trends
POR: 0-6 ATS in first road game with line less than 10 / 7-23 SU as away underdogs
SAC: 12-22-2 ATS after a loss / 21-14-2 to the over at home
Analysis
The Sacramento Kings host the Portland Trail Blazers, aiming to halt a four-game home losing streak. Conversely, Portland has demonstrated competitiveness as they commence a road trip following a six-game homestand. This matchup marks the final regular-season meeting between the two teams.
In their most recent encounter, the Trail Blazers secured a victory over the Kings at home. Notably, Sacramento was playing on the second night of a back-to-back in that game and will seek to avenge the loss under more favorable conditions tonight. Historically, the Trail Blazers have struggled in their initial road game following a homestand, failing to cover the spread in such scenarios when listed as underdogs of less than ten points.
Recently, Portland has capitalized on second-chance opportunities, averaging 19 second-chance points per game over the past ten games, ranking third in the league. However, the Kings boast one of the NBA's premier defensive rebounding units, ranking second in defensive rebounding percentage and seventh in limiting opponents' second-chance points during the same period. Defensively, the Trail Blazers rank 22nd in opponent second-chance points allowed and are third-worst in defensive rebounding percentage.
The Kings have exhibited improved three-point shooting at home, averaging 37.5% from beyond the arc, a significant improvement over their road performances. This, combined with the potential challenges the Trail Blazers may face in their first road game after a homestand, suggests that Sacramento could establish an early scoring advantage.