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NBA Betting Insights Thursday 3rd April
Memphis recently parted ways with head coach Taylor Jenkins, a move that has contributed to inconsistencies in their recent performances. However, the Grizzlies enter this matchup at full strength and should be encouraged by their prior success against the Heat just a few weeks ago. In that previous meeting, the Grizzlies dominated from start to finish en route to a 125-91 blowout victory. Given their rest advantage and heightened motivation following their recent skid, Memphis is poised to once again assert themselves in this rematch.
by Malachi
ACEPICKS LEANS
MEM -5
POR -4.5
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES @ MIAMI HEAT
Player News
Out: V. Williams, A. Wiggins, N. Jovic
Questionable: K. Love, D. Robinson
Market
Opening: -3.5 MEM / 225.5
Current: -5 MEM / 225.5
Recent Form
MEM L10: 2-8 SU / 2-8 ATS / 6-4 OU
MIA L10: 6-4 SU / 8-2 ATS / 5-5 OU
Trends
MEM: 19-12 SU after a loss / 13-4 SU as away favourites
MIA: 6-8 ATS on no rest / 4-10 SU as home underdogs
Analysis
The Miami Heat welcome the Memphis Grizzlies on the second night of a back-to-back, aiming to extend their impressive run of form, having secured six consecutive victories. Their most recent triumph came in emphatic fashion, defeating the Boston Celtics as 10-point road underdogs. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, arrive in contrasting form, having dropped four straight games and are now seeking to reverse their fortunes in hopes of climbing the Western Conference playoff standings.
Memphis recently parted ways with head coach Taylor Jenkins, a move that has contributed to inconsistencies in their recent performances. However, the Grizzlies enter this matchup at full strength and should be encouraged by their prior success against the Heat just a few weeks ago. In that previous meeting, the Grizzlies dominated from start to finish en route to a 125-91 blowout victory. Given their rest advantage and heightened motivation following their recent skid, Memphis is poised to once again assert themselves in this rematch.
A key factor tonight is expected to be Memphis’ superiority in the paint. The Grizzlies currently rank as the NBA’s second-best team in points scored in the paint, and they face a Miami squad likely to suffer from fatigue, who sit near the league average in paint defense. Additionally, Miami’s reliance on zone coverage defensively could work in the Grizzlies' favor. Memphis, who shot 12-of-31 from beyond the arc in their previous encounter, rank in the top 10 league-wide in three-point makes per game. They face a Heat defense that allows the 17th most three-point makes per game to opponents—setting the stage for Memphis to find rhythm from the perimeter once again.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS @ TORONTO RAPTORS
Player News
Out: S. Henderson, J. Poeltl, I. Quickley
Questionable: S. Barnes, J. Rhoden, A. Simons
Market
Opening: -2 POR / 226.5
Current: -4.5 POR / 224
Recent Form
POR L10: 5-5 SU / 5-5 ATS / 5-5 OU
TOR L10: 5-5 SU / 7-3 ATS / 4-6 OU
Trends
POR: 5-0 SU as away favourites / 21-10-1 ATS after a win
TOR: 28-18-1 ATS after a loss / 23-14-1 ATS at home
Analysis
The Toronto Raptors return home to host the Portland Trail Blazers as they aim to rebound from a heavy 137-118 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Bulls—a result that snapped their four-game winning streak. The Trail Blazers, on the other hand, enter this contest with renewed momentum following a notable victory over the Atlanta Hawks, a game in which they were five-point underdogs.
These two sides met recently in Portland, with the Trail Blazers emerging victorious in a closely contested 105-102 game, giving them a 1-0 lead in the season series. This evening’s encounter marks the final regular season meeting between the two. In that previous clash, Jakob Poeltl delivered an impactful performance for Toronto, finishing with a team-best +21 plus/minus while converting 9 of his 13 field goal attempts en route to 19 points. However, Poeltl has been ruled out of tonight’s contest, a significant absence for the Raptors. For Portland, the lineup remains largely intact, and although Anfernee Simons is currently listed as questionable, there is optimism surrounding his return after missing the previous outing.
The two key areas to monitor will be the battle on the glass and the differential in perimeter shooting. In their previous encounter, the Trail Blazers dominated the offensive boards, collecting 19 in total. They currently rank 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Raptors sit 24th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage—an imbalance that could result in a significant possession advantage for Portland.
From beyond the arc, Portland outshot Toronto decisively in the earlier meeting, draining 18 three-pointers compared to the Raptors’ 10. Given the Raptors' ongoing struggles with perimeter defense and the Trail Blazers' ability to capitalize from distance, this disparity is likely to resurface, positioning Portland with a vital edge in tonight’s rematch.