The 2024 NFL season is just around the corner, bringing with it the excitement of one of the most popular sports to bet on in the world. After a busy off-season, with numerous coaching changes and star players finding new homes, things are finally starting to settle and we can begin looking forward to another great season. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newcomer looking to get started, understanding the basics of NFL betting is crucial for making informed wagers and improving your game day experience. Here is a preview of the upcoming season with our own rankings, key fixture highlights, betting tips and more.
Team Power Rankings
| NFC | AFC | ||
| 1 | SF 49ers | 1 | KC Chiefs |
| 2 | DET Lions | 2 | BAL Ravens |
| 3 | PHI Eagles | 3 | CIN Bengals |
| 4 | GB Packers | 4 | BUF Bills |
| 5 | DAL Cowboys | 5 | MIA Dolphins |
| 6 | LA Rams | 6 | HOU Texans |
| 7 | ATL Falcons | 7 | NY Jets |
| 8 | SEA Seahawks | 8 | CLE Browns |
| 9 | NO Saints | 9 | IND Colts |
| 10 | TB Buccaneers | 10 | LA Chargers |
| 11 | CHI Bears | 11 | PIT Steelers |
| 12 | ARI Cardinals | 12 | JAX Jaguars |
| 13 | MIN Vikings | 13 | LV Raiders |
| 14 | WAS Commanders | 14 | TEN Titans |
| 15 | NY Giants | 15 | DEN Broncos |
| 16 | CAR Panthers | 16 | NE Patriots |
Top 10 Player Rankings
| QB | WR | RBs | Pass-Rushers | Safeties | Cornerbacks | Kickers |
| 1. Patrick Mahomes | 1. Justin Jefferson | 1. Christian McCaffrey | 1. Myles Garrett | 1. Kyle Hamilton | 1. Sauce Gardener | 1. Justin Tucker |
| 2. Lamar Jackson | 2. Tyreek Hill | 2. Derrick Henry | 2. Micah Parsons | 2. Antoine Winfield Jr. | 2. Trent McDuffie | 2. Brandon Aubrey |
| 3. Joe Burrow | 3. Ja’marr Chase | 3. Jonathan Taylor | 3. Nick Bosa | 3. Jessie Bates III | 3. Charvarius Ward | 3. Harrison Butker |
| 4. Aaron Rodgers | 4. Davante Adams | 4. Jahmyr Gibbs | 4. T.J. Watt | 4. Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4. Pat Surtain II | 4. Jake Elliot |
| 5. Josh Allen | 5. Amon-Ra St Brown | 5. Nick Chubb | 5. Maxx Crosby | 5. Marcus Williams | 5. Jaylon Johnson | 5. Jake Moody |
| 6. CJ Stroud | 6. CeeDee Lamb | 6. Bijan Robinson | 6. Aidan Hutchinson | 6. Jevon Holland | 6. Jalen Ramsey | 6. Jason Sanders |
| 7. Jalen Hurts | 7. A.J. Brown | 7. Saquon Barkley | 7. Khalil Mack | 7. Derwin James Jr. | 7. Jaire Alexander | 7. Tyler Bass |
| 8. Dak Prescott | 8. Deebo Samuel | 8. Breece Hall | 8. Josh Allen | 8. Xavier McKinney | 8. Kendall Fuller | 8. Evan McPherson |
| 9. Jarred Goff | 9. Cooper Kupp | 9. Aaron Jones | 9. Trey Hendrickson | 9. Kyle Dugger | 9. Michael Carter II | 9. Younghoe Koo |
| 10. Mathew Stafford | 10. Brandon Aiyuk | 10. Josh Jacobs | 10. Rashan Gary | 10. Tyrann Mathieu | 10. Taron Johnson | 10. Ka’imi Fairbairn |
2024 key fixtures
International Games
September 6, 2024: Brazil game - Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers
October 6, 2024: London game - New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings
October 13, 2024: London game - Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears
October 20, 2024: London game - New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
November 10, 2024: Munich game - New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers
Thanksgiving & Christmas
November 28, 2024: Thanksgiving games
- Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
- New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
- Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
December 25, 2024: Christmas Games
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Game of the week
Week 1: New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers
Week 2: Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Week 4: Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Week 5: Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Week 6: Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
Week 7: Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
Week 8: Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
Week 9: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Week 10: Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans
Week 11: Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Week 12: Philadelphia Eagles @ LA Rams
Week 13: San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Week 14: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Week 15: Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Week 16: Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Week 17: Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Week 18: Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Betting Tips
Discipline
Bankroll management
- Make sure to set a budget for the season and stick to it, it is key to understand how much you are willing to lose if everything goes wrong, which it certainly can. We would advise not betting more than 1-2% of your bankroll in a single bet, depending on the staking strategy being used.
Chasing losses
- After a losing bet, it’s tempting to try and win back your money immediately. This often leads to placing irrational bets and compounding losses. Stay disciplined, trust your process, and avoid making impulsive bets. Especially with the way that the NFL is scheduled, people who lose money on the Sunday afternoon games tend to try and make up for it with the evening or primetime games, it could not be stressed enough that this is a bad idea!
Value betting
- As we have discussed in a previous article, make sure to bet on odds and lines that you think are mispriced, not just your favorite teams or the ones who you think have no chance of losing. Everything is based on odds and probabilities within betting, bet with your mind and not your heart, we have a long season ahead!
Betting Early
NFL markets are some of the sharpest in the world of sports betting, which means it is very difficult to be profitable long term without beating the rest of the market on a weekly basis. What this means is getting odds/lines which are better than what they close at before the game begins. For example, you bet the Texans -3 and just before the game begins their spread was -4, this means you managed to beat the market and got a better line than when the market was at its most efficient point (the closing line).
The best way to beat closing lines is by betting early in the week when the markets have less access to information in comparison to game day, and before the sharp players come in with big money. Very rarely do lines open and close at the same number, so anticipating the movement is key. Make sure not to bet on inflated lines that have already accounted for all the factors that you might be betting into, e.g. a star player being injured.
Key Numbers
Certain numbers in NFL spread and total markets carry more weight than others due to the nature of the scoring system. The 2 crucial numbers are 3 and 7, these are the most common margins of victory, reflecting the prevalence of field goals and touchdowns. For instance, getting a favorite at -2.5 instead of -3, or an underdog at +7.5 instead of +7 can make a significant difference. Pay close attention to these numbers throughout the season.
In-Play Betting
In-play or live betting allows you to place bets during the game, offering opportunities to capitalize on changing dynamics. As you watch the game keep an eye out for momentum shifts such as key player injuries and turnovers. You can also leverage your knowledge of team tendencies, such as a team increasing the rate of running plays when they have a lead and try to chew time off the clock, in this example you may want to have a look at betting the live total under. This Chiefs were a great team for betting 2nd half unders last season as they won games with defense and time wasting in the latter parts of the match.
Analysing matchups
As you prepare for the upcoming round of NFL fixtures on a weekly basis, it is important to analyze the matchups both from a qualitative and quantitative angle, below are some of the key factors to keep in mind:
Qualitative factors
- Form
- Coaching
- Weather
- Injuries
- Rest & Travel
- Home/Away splits
- Motivation
- Head-to-head
- Unit Matchups
Quantitative factors
- Dropback EPA
- Rush EPA
- Success Rate
- 3rd Down Conversion Rate
- Rush vs Pass Play %
- Points per game scored and allowed
