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San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns Preview
This season, the Suns have demonstrated a significant dependency on Durant's presence. They hold a 24-17 record when he is active, compared to just 2-11 without him, underscoring his critical role in the team's success. Durant's dual impact as a prolific scorer and a formidable defender elevates the Suns' performance on both ends of the court.
by Malachi
Player News
Out: V. Wembanyama, C. Martin
Questionable: D. Booker, G. Allen
Market
Opening: -2 SAS / 230.5
Current: -2 PHX / 238.5
Recent Form
SAS L10: 3-7 SU / 3-7 ATS / 7-3 OU
PHX L10: 3-7 SU / 4-6 ATS / 7-3 OU
Trends
SAS: 10-24 SU as underdogs / 6-22 ATS and 18-10 to the over with equal rest
PHX: 9-5 SU as away favourite / 11-3 to the over as away favourite
Analysis
The Suns enter this matchup with a healthy roster, as key players Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal are all expected to play. In their previous meeting in December, the Suns secured a 104-93 victory over the Spurs, despite Kevin Durant being on a minutes restriction and Victor Wembanyama being active for San Antonio.
This season, the Suns have demonstrated a significant dependency on Durant's presence. They hold a 24-17 record when he is active, compared to just 2-11 without him, underscoring his critical role in the team's success. Durant's dual impact as a prolific scorer and a formidable defender elevates the Suns' performance on both ends of the court. Conversely, the Spurs face a substantial challenge with the expected absence of Wembanyama, who has been diagnosed with a blood clot in his right shoulder and is anticipated to miss the remainder of the season. Without Wembanyama, the Spurs' defense, already ranking among the league's bottom tier, is likely to face additional difficulties.
The Suns' anticipated starting lineup, featuring three players standing 6'11" or taller, is poised to capitalize on the Spurs' weakened interior defense. San Antonio ranks in the bottom nine for defensive rebounding percentage, a statistic that is expected to decline further in Wembanyama's absence. Phoenix's length not only bolsters their rebounding capabilities but also enhances their interior defense. Employing zone defensive schemes, the Suns aim to compel the Spurs into taking lower-percentage jump shots shots. This strategy aligns with San Antonio's struggles from beyond the arc, as they rank 24th in three-pointers made per game. Both teams frequently attempt mid-range shots; however, the Suns' defensive proficiency in this area contrasts sharply with the Spurs' vulnerability, as San Antonio allows opponents to convert mid-range attempts at the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Over the past 15 games, the Spurs have been the fourth-worst defensive team in the NBA. Facing a Suns lineup that boasts prolific scorers like Durant, Booker, and Beal, San Antonio's defense is expected to be severely tested. The Spurs' lack of defensive personnel capable of effectively matching up against the Suns' stars, combined with the anticipated fast-paced tempo of the game, could exacerbate their defensive woes. Newly acquired guard De'Aaron Fox, while a potent offensive threat, is not particularly known for his defensive prowess and may struggle to contain Booker. Offensively, the Suns exhibit consistency, with an effective field goal percentage just 0.01% shy of the top 10 in the league, indicating sound shot selection and execution.
Considering the Spurs' defensive mismatches, the absence of Wembanyama, and the Suns' revitalized and healthy roster, it is anticipated that San Antonio will face significant challenges in this contest. Historically, the Spurs have struggled in the underdog role, posting a 10-24 record in such situations this season. The combination of a high-paced game and the Suns' offensive firepower suggests value in favoring Phoenix to cover the spread, as well as the potential for the total points to exceed projections.