UFC 316: Full Card Preview

We've given our fight by fight breakdown of this stacked card, the leans below are not our official picks. We have 13 official bets, with stakes and best odds advice posted on our official picks page - make sure to subscribe before the card if you want to tail them!

Marquel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski
Choinski is a live underdog for some, but the flaws in his game stand out—limited wrestling control, poor leg kick defence, and overall defensive liabilities. Mederos' kicks could be a real problem for him here. While Mederos pulling out last week raises concerns, stylistically this still looks like his fight to lose.
Lean: Mederos to Win by KO/TKO

Quinn Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz
Salkilld brings superior physical tools, cardio, and striking volume. Ashmouz is extremely reliant on an early KO, and if that doesn’t come, Salkilld’s pressure should overwhelm him. This looks like a late finish or dominant decision.
Lean: Salkilld to Win Inside the Distance

Joo Sang Yoo vs. Jeka Saragih
Yoo is well-rounded with advantages on the ground, on the feet, and in cardio. Saragih has serious power early, but fades fast and is extremely vulnerable on the mat. As long as Yoo survives Round 1, he should take over.
Pick: Yoo to win ITD/ Under 2.5 Rounds

Ariane da Silva (Lipski) vs. Cong Wang
This sets up as a striker’s duel, with Wang offering more power and athleticism. Lipski has solid technique but her chin is questionable against Wang’s output. Both are finish-capable, so the total could be a valuable angle. Lipski coming in overweight and the comments about her problems with a tumour in camp make us lean in favour of Wang, with the KO line looking to hold some value.
Lean: Wang to Win by KO/TKO

Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson Berg
Gustafsson is tough and decent in the clinch but quite hittable, and Williams hits extremely hard. If Khaos finds the target early, it might be over quick.
Lean: Williams to Win by KO/TKO

Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Spivac may find success with early takedowns, but Waldo is more durable, better at striking, and thrives in longer fights. Spivac’s tendency to fold under adversity makes this a strong late-fight spot for Cortes-Acosta.
Lean: Cortes-Acosta to Win by KO/TKO

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Bruno Ribeiro
Murzakanov is a big step up for Ribeiro, who usually relies on speed and power. Azamat is quicker, more technical, and much more dangerous. Expect a clear class difference.
Lean: Murzakanov to Win by KO/TKO

Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van
This is a guaranteed scrap. Silva has power and danger early, but Van’s pace, volume, and body work should break him down. Van’s Round 2 or 3 TKO seems like a high probability despite the big odds.
Lean: Van to win by KO/TKO

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland
Luque’s durability has seriously declined, and Holland has the size, reach, and power to take advantage. It’s hard to trust Holland, but this is a good matchup for him to shine.
Lean: Holland to win by KO/TKO

Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
This should be close. Mix has dangerous grappling but Bautista offers higher volume, better striking, and elite get-up ability. If he avoids the guillotine threat, he can edge rounds and score a decision win.
Lean: Bautista to win by Decision

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
Gastelum is live if he survives early danger. Pyfer is more explosive and dangerous, but his cardio could fade late. A greasy fight where Pyfer’s power might win early minutes and edge out a decision, but his line feels too short here.
Lean: Pyfer to win by Decision

Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison
All signs point to Harrison dominating, but weight cut and five-round pacing make it trickier than odds suggest. Peña is durable and dangerous late, but Harrison likely finishes this early if she’s on point.
Lean: Harrison to win ITD

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley
O’Malley has the finishing upside, striking edge, and movement to trouble Merab. The UFC likely wants a star win here and O’Malley has the motivation, health, and tools to pull off the upset.
Lean: O’Malley to win by Decision

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