While many expected Bayern to put the tie beyond doubt early, Celtic’s late goal has given them a fighting chance, though they now face the daunting task of overturning a deficit in one of Europe’s most formidable stadiums.
Bayern’s 20-match unbeaten run at home in the Champions League (W16, D4) underlines just how difficult a task Celtic face. Under Vincent Kompany, Bayern have won all four of their home games in the competition this season, and another victory here would see Kompany match the record of previous managers Hansi Flick and Jupp Heynckes, who both won their first five UCL home games. Furthermore, Bayern have beaten Scottish opposition in five consecutive home European games, adding to their air of dominance. Despite their strong record at the Allianz Arena, Bayern’s form has been slightly patchy by their own high standards. A 0-0 draw against Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen last weekend saw them fail to register a single shot on target, a rare off-day for an attack that has scored 65 goals in the Bundesliga, the highest tally in the league. However, Kompany’s side remain in control domestically and will be confident in finishing the job here, especially given their track record of progressing to the last 16 of the UCL for 20 consecutive seasons.
Celtic will take encouragement from their spirited first-leg performance, where they posed a genuine attacking threat, particularly on the counter-attack. Nicolas Kuhn’s disallowed goal inside the first minute showed they could trouble Bayern, and Daizen Maeda’s late strike kept them in the tie. However, history is not on their side—Celtic have never progressed after losing the first leg of a major European knockout tie at home, and they are winless in their last 12 away UCL matches (D3, L9). Domestically, Celtic continue to dominate, sitting 13 points clear at the top of the Scottish Premiership after a routine 3-0 win over Dundee United. Their recent attacking form has been strong, scoring at least three goals in four of their last five matches, but replicating that against Bayern is a completely different challenge.
Stats Watch:
- Bayern are unbeaten in their last 13 matches against Scottish opposition in major European competition (W9 D4), with their last defeat coming all the way back in 1989 against Hearts in the UEFA Cup (0-1).
- Celtic have won just one of their last 21 European matches against teams that have previously won the competition.
- Celtic’s Nicolas Kühn has been a key attacking outlet, creating 10 chances following a ball carry (5+ metres with possession) in the Champions League this season—more than any other player during the league phase.
- Bayern have scored 20 goals in the league phase, with only Borussia Dortmund (22) and Barcelona (28) scoring more. Excluding penalties, they generated 19.3 expected goals (xG), the joint-most alongside Atalanta.
- No team attempted more shots (185) or had more shots on target (69) than Bayern in the league phase, though their finishing let them down, with a conversion rate of just 10.8%.
- Harry Kane netted six goals in the league phase, while Michael Olise added four, making them Bayern’s most potent attacking threats.
- Joshua Kimmich has been involved in more open-play shot-ending sequences (72) than any other player in the competition. He also leads all players for passes completed (689) and line-breaking passes (136).
- Callum McGregor is one of just five midfielders to have played every minute of their team’s Champions League campaign this season—one of the others is Kimmich.
- Kompany’s side forced the most high turnovers (120) in the league phase and turned 21 of those into shots, the joint-most in the competition.
- Only five teams have suffered more high turnovers against them than Celtic (79) in this season’s Champions League.
Team News
Bayern head into the match with an almost fully fit squad, with only Alphonso Davies and backup goalkeeper Daniel Peretz confirmed as absentees. Their defensive duo of Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae is expected to start, while Harry Kane, who scored in the first leg, will lead the attack alongside Michael Olise, Kingsley Coman, and Jamal Musiala.
For Celtic, James Forrest (foot) and Paulo Bernardo (ankle) remain sidelined. Jota could be drafted in to start alongside Maeda and Adam Idah, while Callum McGregor, Arne Engels, and Reo Hatate will likely form the midfield.
Bayern’s home record in Europe, combined with Celtic’s struggles on their travels, makes this a huge task for the Scottish champions. While their attacking intent in the first leg showed promise, history, form, and squad depth all favor Bayern as they look to extend their dominance at the Allianz Arena and book their place in the last 16 once again.