Carlo Ancelotti’s side may have the upper hand in the tie, but their recent domestic form has been shaky. A controversial 1-1 draw against Osasuna at the weekend marked their third straight La Liga game without a win (D2, L1), a slump that has allowed Barcelona to close the gap in the title race. However, Madrid’s history in Europe speaks for itself—they have progressed in 37 of the 39 European knockout ties in which they won the first leg away from home, making them firm favorites to see the job through.
Manchester City, on the other hand, arrive in Spain on the back of a confidence-boosting 4-0 demolition of Newcastle United, a result that helped ease the frustration of their first-leg collapse. Despite taking the lead twice through Erling Haaland, defensive lapses cost them dearly as Madrid once again showcased their ability to turn games around in dramatic fashion. Pep Guardiola's men must now do what they have never done before in the Champions League—overturn a first-leg deficit to progress. City have failed in all four previous attempts, and their away record in Europe offers little encouragement, having lost each of their last three Champions League away fixtures, the longest such streak of Guardiola’s managerial career.
The Bernabéu has long been a fortress for Madrid in this competition, with Los Blancos scoring in all but one of their last 78 home matches in the Champions League, averaging an impressive 2.65 goals per game. While they have suffered eliminations at the hands of English sides in recent years, their overall home record against Premier League opponents remains strong (W12, D9, L4). City, however, have historically struggled when visiting Spanish opposition, winning just four of their 16 trips (D4, L8), and Guardiola has yet to win an away European match against Ancelotti in four attempts.
Vinícius Júnior, who was instrumental in Madrid’s first-leg comeback with two assists, continues to be their main attacking threat. The Brazilian has been directly involved in ten goals across his last five Champions League appearances (7G, 3A) and will look to exploit any defensive frailties in City’s backline once again. For the visitors, Haaland remains the focal point, and with his brace in the first leg taking his Champions League tally to 49, the Norwegian is now on the brink of becoming the fastest player in history to reach 50 goals in the competition. A goal at the Bernabéu would see him break both the age and appearance records for the milestone.
Stats Watch
- Only Bayern Munich have generated a higher xG than Manchester City in the Champions League this season, with City averaging an xGF of 2.06 per game. Real Madrid are slightly behind with 1.89 xGF per game, though City lead the competition in xG away from home, averaging 2.08 per match.
- Real Madrid’s matches rank eighth in the competition for corners, averaging 11.11 per game, while City’s games see a slightly lower average of 10.67 corners per 90 minutes.
- Discipline has not been a major factor in either team’s matches so far, with Real Madrid’s games averaging just 3.78 cards per match. Manchester City’s matches have had the fewest cards of any team in the competition, averaging only 1.78 per game - the first leg saw zero cards shown, however
- Both teams have been involved in high-scoring encounters, with their matches averaging 4.11 goals per game—joint-third highest in the competition.
- Despite winning three of their four home games in the Champions League, Real Madrid are yet to keep a clean sheet at the Bernabéu. City’s away defensive record has been poor, with just one clean sheet in four matches and 10 goals conceded across the remaining three away fixtures.
- Erling Haaland (30 shots) and Kylian Mbappé (25 shots) rank first and second in the competition for total shots taken.
- While Mbappé has taken more shots and played two more games, Vinícius Júnior has been far more efficient, posting the third-highest xG per 90 (1.03) compared to Mbappé’s 0.66. The Brazilian has scored seven goals from an xG of 6.15 in just seven appearances.
- Vinícius Júnior is one goal behind Haaland, who leads the competition with eight goals from an xG of 6.51. However, Haaland’s consistency has been questionable, with his xG per 90 dropping to 0.86, suggesting he is not generating high-quality chances in every game.
Team News
Real Madrid have received a significant boost ahead of the second leg, with Antonio Rüdiger and David Alaba both returning to full training, which could allow Ancelotti to shift Aurélien Tchouaméni back into midfield. However, Lucas Vázquez remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, while Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão are still unavailable.
Manchester City could also welcome back key defenders, with both Rúben Dias and Nathan Aké in contention after missing the weekend fixture due to muscle tightness. Jack Grealish is also pushing for a return after sustaining a groin injury in the first leg, but Manuel Akanji remains out alongside Rodri and Oscar Bobb. Erling Haaland went down with a knee injury late in their game versus Newcastle, and was substituted, but when asked about the injury, Pep Guardiola seemed to deny that it was a bad one, and it seems he will be fit to compete here. With City needing to be on the front foot from the start, Guardiola must balance his attacking intent with ensuring his side does not leave themselves vulnerable to Madrid’s devastating counterattacks.
With two of Europe’s most dominant forces colliding once again, the stage is set for another memorable night at the Bernabéu, where City will need to overcome history and their recent struggles on the road to keep their European dreams alive.