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NBA Betting Insights Tuesday 18th March
Lastly, rebounding presents another key advantage for Milwaukee. The Bucks lead the league in defensive rebounding percentage, which should significantly limit Golden State’s ability to generate second-chance points. Considering the Warriors rank 7th in second-chance points per game, neutralizing this aspect of their offense will be crucial in preventing them from staying competitive.
by Malachi
Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors
Player News
Out: S. Curry, J. Sims, B. Portis
Questionable: B. Podziemski, Q. Post
Market
Opening: -2.5 GSW / 235.5
Current: -3 MIL / 226.5
Recent Form
MIL L10: 6-4 SU / 7-3 ATS / 6-4 OU
GSW L10: 8-2 SU / 4-5-1 ATS / 5-5 OU
Trends
MIL: 11-6 SU with rest advantage / 11-7 to the over as away favourite
GSW: 3-6 SU as home underdogs / 5-6 ATS with no rest
Analysis
The Milwaukee Bucks travel to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors, aiming to rebound from their recent defeat against the Oklahoma City Thunder, a loss that came on the second night of a back-to-back. The Warriors, meanwhile, remain at home after suffering a disappointing loss to the Nuggets last night, despite Denver being without their two best players, Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. Golden State now faces the challenge of playing on no rest. The season series is currently 1-0 in favour of the Warriors, tonight’s fixture will be the final game of this season's head-to-head encounters between the two sides.
Golden State's offense has struggled significantly in games without Curry, averaging just 107.2 points per contest in his absence. The Warriors are also just 3-6 this season as home underdogs. Meanwhile, the Bucks hold a strong 11-6 record when possessing a rest advantage. Notably, in a similar scenario last season, the Warriors faced the Bucks without Curry on no rest and suffered a 129-118 defeat at home.
Defensively, the Bucks are well-positioned to dictate the tempo of this matchup. They rank 11th in defensive rating and, over the past 15 games, have tightened up even further, sitting 9th in opponent points allowed at just 111.1 per game. The Bucks rank 7th in opponent paint points allowed, meaning Golden State’s role players will likely be forced into taking a high volume of perimeter shots. However, spacing concerns and an over-reliance on lower-percentage three-pointers could allow Milwaukee to build a scoring margin early.
On the offensive end, Milwaukee employs a sustainable scoring model, ranking 4th in effective field goal percentage and 5th in true shooting percentage. This presents a favorable matchup against a Warriors team that emphasizes interior defense while leaving vulnerabilities on the perimeter. The Bucks are a high-volume three-point shooting team, ranking 7th in made three-pointers per game while boasting the league’s 2nd-best three-point percentage. Over the past 15 games, the Warriors' perimeter defense has declined, ranking 22nd in opponent three-point percentage allowed.
Lastly, rebounding presents another key advantage for Milwaukee. The Bucks lead the league in defensive rebounding percentage, which should significantly limit Golden State’s ability to generate second-chance points. Considering the Warriors rank 7th in second-chance points per game, neutralizing this aspect of their offense will be crucial in preventing them from staying competitive.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Player News
Out: J. Miller
Questionable: E. Mobley
Market
Opening: -1 CLE / 234.5
Current: -3 CLE / 232
Recent Form
CLE L10: 9-1 SU / 5-5 ATS / 4-6 OU
LAC L10: 6-4 SU / 5-5 ATS / 5-5 OU
Trends
CLE: 23-4 SU as away favourites / 7-3 SU after a loss
LAC: 5-6 SU as home underdogs / 18-11-1 to the under as underdog
Analysis
The Cleveland Cavaliers enter this contest seeking to rebound from a rare defeat inflicted by the Orlando Magic, despite being favored by 10 points at home and relinquishing a 13-point halftime advantage, thereby concluding an impressive 16-game winning streak. Conversely, the Los Angeles Clippers have exhibited commendable form, securing victories in six of their last seven encounters, with their sole loss occurring on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans. This matchup marks the inaugural meeting between these two teams this season.
Analyzing the Cavaliers' recent uncharacteristic loss to Orlando, their three-point shooting was notably subpar, converting only 10 of 40 attempts (25%). This deviation from their typical performance, as one of the league's most proficient three-point shooting teams, suggests potential positive regression in forthcoming games. Furthermore, the disparity in free throw attempts was significant, with the Magic attempting 34 to the Cavaliers' 20. Addressing this imbalance will be pivotal for Cleveland's strategy in this matchup.
The Clippers' offensive efficiency is often contingent upon favorable interior matchups, with Ivica Zubac playing a pivotal role in paint scoring. However, facing Cleveland's star center, Jarrett Allen, this avenue may be constrained. Moreover, the potential return of Evan Mobley, currently listed as questionable, could further bolster the Cavaliers' defensive fortitude.
In terms of tempo, the Cavaliers may capitalize on their advantage, as the Clippers rank among the league's slowest teams, whereas Cleveland ranks 11th in pace. Coupled with a size and rebounding advantage, this could result in increased possession opportunities for the Cavaliers, providing a strategic edge.
Ultimately, the outcome may hinge on perimeter shooting. Should the Cavaliers experience a likely resurgence from three-point range, the Clippers could struggle to match their offensive output from a mathematical perspective, particularly given Cleveland's proficiency in interior defense, which could stymie the Clippers' preferred scoring zones.