NBA Betting Insights Tuesday 25th March

ORLANDO MAGIC @ CHARLOTTE HORNETS

Player News

Out: N/a

Questionable: J. Okogie, T. Queen, C. Anthony (doubtful)

Market

Opening: -5 ORL / 210.5 

Current: -5.5 ORL / 213.5

Recent Form

ORL L10: 5-5 SU / 6-4 ATS / 7-3 OU

CHA L10: 4-6 SU / 5-5 ATS / 4-6 OU

Trends

ORL: 4-7 SU on no rest / 5-8 ATS with rest disadvantage / 25-11 to the under as away team

CHA: 19-12-1 ATS as home underdogs / 25-11 to the under as home team

Analysis

​The Orlando Magic travel to Charlotte for the second game of a back-to-back, aiming to extend their recent success. They are buoyed by a significant triumph over the Los Angeles Lakers, a contest in which they entered as 5-point underdogs. Demonstrating resilience, the Magic dominated the second half, outscoring the Lakers 60-46 to clinch the victory. Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets seek to halt a two-game losing streak, having suffered consecutive defeats to the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder, each by margins exceeding 17 points. Over their last five outings, the Hornets have secured only a single win.​

From a situational perspective, the Hornets possess an advantage in terms of rest, given that the Magic competed just last night and subsequently traveled from Orlando to Charlotte. The Hornets have exhibited a commendable 6-4-1 record against the spread (ATS) in games where they benefit from a rest advantage. In contrast, the Magic have struggled under similar circumstances, posting a 4-7 record when playing without rest. Furthermore, the Hornets have demonstrated proficiency as home underdogs, achieving a 19-12-1 ATS record in such scenarios, suggesting their potential to keep the forthcoming game competitive.​

However, from a matchup standpoint, the Hornets are poised to face considerable challenges. The Magic have dominated the season series thus far, securing victories in all three prior encounters, each by margins of 11 points or more. Orlando's defensive prowess is evident, as they rank third in defensive rating this season. This stifling defense has limited Charlotte to under 90 points in each of their meetings, a testament to Orlando's exceptional interior and perimeter coverage. The Hornets have struggled offensively in these matchups, failing to surpass 42 points in the paint in any game. Collectively, Charlotte has converted a mere 103 of 259 field goal attempts against Orlando, equating to a field goal percentage of 39.8%.​

Defensively, the Hornets present vulnerabilities that the Magic are well-positioned to exploit. Charlotte ranks 23rd in defensive rating this year, allowing a high volume of three-point makes to opponents, placing them 20th in opponent three-point makes per game. Their transition defense has also been subpar, ranking 22nd in opponent fast break points allowed per game. Additionally, the Hornets' defensive rebounding has been lacking, as they rank 22nd in defensive rebounds per game. This deficiency could be problematic against a formidable rebounding unit like the Magic, who are among the top 12 in offensive rebounds per game and lead the league in defensive rebounding percentage.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ MIAMI HEAT

Player News

Out: N/a

Questionable: S. Curry, D. Robinson

Market

Opening: -5 GSW / 221.5

Current: -5.5 GSW / 216.5

Recent Form

GSW L10: 8-2 SU / 3-6-1 ATS / 5-5 OU

MIA L10: 1-9 SU / 4-6 ATS / 4-6 OU

Trends

GSW: 18-10-1 ATS after a loss / 12-7 SU as away favourites

MIA: 11-18 ATS after a win / 3-10 SU as home underdogs

Analysis

The Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors are set to face off tonight in a highly anticipated matchup, highlighted by the recent trade that sent Jimmy Butler to the Warriors in exchange for Andrew Wiggins and other assets. Since Butler's debut with Golden State, the Warriors have achieved a 16-4 record, while the Heat have struggled, enduring one of their worst stretches in recent years. ​This will be the second meeting between the two teams this season. The Heat won the first encounter on January 7, defeating the Warriors 114-98 in San Francisco. However, both teams have undergone significant roster changes since that game, most notably the Butler-Wiggins trade.​ 

Since the All-Star break, the Warriors rank third in net rating, bolstered by their defense, which ranks second during this period. Offensively, they lead the league in assist percentage, showcasing improved cohesion among playmakers such as Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, and Jimmy Butler. In contrast, the Heat rank 18th in net rating since the All-Star break, with their offense in the bottom 10. A significant issue for Miami has been a shooting slump, as they rank in the bottom 10 in three-point percentage and bottom six in three-pointers made per game during this span.​

Three-point shooting is likely to be a decisive factor in this game. The Warriors rank third in three-point attempts and fourth in three-point makes. The Heat's defense is average in terms of opponent three-point percentage but allows 13.7 made three-pointers per game, placing them near the bottom 10. Since the All-Star break, the Heat rank 22nd in opponent three-point percentage. For Miami to compete effectively, they must improve their perimeter defense and match the Warriors' three-point shooting. This will be challenging given their recent slump and the Warriors' ninth-ranked defense in both opponent three-point attempts and makes allowed per game. In their previous matchup, the Warriors shot just 28% from three-point range (14-50), while the Heat made 40% of their attempts. An adjustment in this area could significantly influence the outcome.​

Furthermore, the Warriors have improved their free-throw rate since acquiring Butler, now ranking fifth in free-throw attempts per game at 24.8 and top four in free-throw percentage. Conversely, the Heat have struggled in this area, averaging just 18.1 free-throw attempts per game since the All-Star break, placing them third last in the league. Over the past 11 games, the Heat rank last in free-throw attempts per game.​

ATLANTA HAWKS @ HOUSTON ROCKETS

Player News

Out: C. Capela

Questionable: N/a

Market

Opening: -8 HOU / 232.5

Current: -8 HOU / 234.5

Recent Form

ATL L10: 7-3 SU / 6-4 ATS / 7-3 OU

HOU L10: 9-1 SU / 6-4 ATS / 6-4 OU

Trends

ATL: 15-10 ATS as away underdogs / 20-14 to the over as away team

HOU: 15-10 ATS after a loss / 18-11 to the under in non-conference games

Analysis

The Atlanta Hawks journey to Houston to confront the Rockets, aiming to extend their current three-game winning streak. Conversely, the Rockets seek to rebound following a home defeat to the Denver Nuggets, which halted their impressive nine-game victory run. Both teams approach this encounter with a day's rest.​ In their prior meeting this season, the Rockets narrowly triumphed over the Hawks with a 100-96 victory in Atlanta. Since that matchup, the Hawks have bolstered their roster by acquiring Caris LeVert and Terrance Mann, enhancing the scoring depth of their second unit. Additionally, rookie Zaccharie Risacher, absent in the previous game, is anticipated to start tonight.​

From a three-point shooting standpoint, the Hawks have shown notable improvement. Over the past ten games, they rank ninth in three-point percentage, averaging 38% from beyond the arc. Conversely, the Rockets' perimeter defense, while solid throughout the season, has declined recently, allowing opponents a 40.1% three-point shooting percentage in the last five games.​

In their previous encounter, the Rockets enjoyed a six-point advantage in free throws, converting 19 of 20 attempts compared to the Hawks' 13 of 16. However, season averages suggest this disparity may diminish. The Hawks rank seventh in free throw attempts per field goal made and second in both free throw makes and attempts. Meanwhile, the Rockets' defense stands at 19th in opponent free throw attempts per field goal made and 17th in opponent free throw attempts per game.​

The significant difference in paint scoring observed in their last meeting is also expected to narrow. The Hawks, averaging 54.6 paint points per game, rank third in the league for interior scoring, while the Rockets' defense is around league average in opponent paint points allowed. Offensively, the Rockets rank 11th in paint scoring, averaging 4.3 fewer paint points per game than the Hawks. Notably, the Hawks have recently improved their paint defense, advancing from 24th to mid-league rankings over the past ten games.​