Falkirk host Livingston in a top of the table clash in the Scottish Championship on Friday night. Livingston have slipped to third place in the table thanks to Ayr's resurgence, and Falkirk hold a 4 point lead over the Lions in an exciting title charge. Despite Falkirk's lead in the table, they have struggled against Livingston's low block this season so far, with just one goal across their two H2H matches going in Livingston's favour.

Falkirk recovered from a mid-season dip with a 2-0 win at Raith Rovers last weekend, having been knocked out the cup by Raith the weekend before. Prior to this, they drew with Queen's Park and Dunfermline and only just squeezed by struggling Hamilton in a 1-0 victory. Falkirk will be pleased they got back to winning ways against Raith Rovers and will now be looking to get the better of Livingston for the first time this campaign.

Livingston likewise have gone through something of a mid-season dip, losing three consecutive matches for the first time since they were in the Premiership in March 2024. These disappointing losses at Queen's Park, Raith and at home to title challengers Ayr have meant Livi have surrendered second place in the league. They had a fortunate turn of fixtures since this dip, with the two struggling sides Airdrieonians and Hamilton visiting West Lothian. Livi were ran close by Airdrieonians but easily dispatched Hamilton to restore some confidence in the side.

Despite both teams getting back on track, Livingston's manager Martindale will revert back to his typical tactics against the better sides when away from home. In Livi's 6 games against the current Top 4, there has been a total of just 6 goals. This average of 1 goal per game has been accomplished by Livingston's tactics of breaking up matches and frustrating the opposition. It has worked masterfully against Falkirk, with Livi grabbing a 0-0 draw at Falkirk in October before beating them 1-0 in November.

Looking at the previous five matches for both sides (excluding Falkirk's match in which they received an 8th minute red card), the sides are conceding just 1.18 and 1.08 xG respectively. Falkirk have only conceded in one of these five matches, while Livingston have drawn two blanks in their last five. With both sides keen to avoid defeat and to cede territory in the title race, our analysis suggests there is value backing the Unders line at 1.83.

Best odds can be found at Bet365.