OFI +1.5 looks like solid value against Panathinaikos, given Panathinaikos' struggles to cover big handicaps and their recent lack of attacking firepower. In 20 league games, Panathinaikos have beaten the -1.5 handicap just once, a 3-1 win over Panserraikos back in September, a game where they scored twice after the 80th minute, with the third goal to cover the handicap coming in the 88th minute. That result came against the league's joint-worst defence in terms of goals conceded, with Panserraikos conceding 34 goals in 20 games and having the worst away defensive record in the league. Panathinaikos have scored more than one goal in just 5 of their 20 league matches, with 11 of those games featuring under 1.5 total goals and 15 finishing under 2.5 goals. At home, their attacking struggles are even more apparent, as they have scored more than once in just 2 of their 10 home league games, managing only 11 goals in 10 games, with their home games averaging just 1.60 goals overall per game, the lowest in the league.

OFI, on the other hand, have covered the +1.5 handicap in 17 of their 20 league games this season, losing by more than one goal in just three games. Those came in the season opener against AEK, an away loss to Asteras in November, and a home defeat to Olympiakos on December 1, where they conceded the second goal in the 88th minute. The Asteras and Olympiakos losses came during OFI’s worst stretch of the season, a congested run of seven games across competitions where they failed to win a match. Since then, they have lost just once in six league games, picking up four wins and a draw, keeping three clean sheets in their last six games.

OFI have performed better away than at home, picking up more points on the road with a 4-3-3 away record. They have covered the +1.5 handicap in 8 of their 10 away games, showing resilience even against stronger sides. Their defensive structure should be further strengthened by the recent addition of Androutos, a Greek Super League veteran with 103 league appearances, who made his debut for OFI last game.

Another key factor favoring OFI is Panathinaikos' packed schedule. They have a Greek Cup quarter-final second leg against Olympiakos in four days, followed by a league game against Aris on the weekend, and then their Conference League Round of 16 first leg shortly after. With three crucial matches in the next 13 days, Panathinaikos may not be fully focused on this fixture. Adding to Panathinaikos' concerns, they are missing key defensive players. Their starting center-back Ingason is suspended, a huge blow given he has started 17 of their 20 league matches. In the five games he has missed across all competitions, Panathinaikos have failed to keep a clean sheet. They are also without center-back Jedvaj (14 starts) and defensive midfielder Cerin, both of whom have played significant roles this season. OFI will be missing attacker Thiago Nuss, but they should have enough depth to compensate. Apostolakis is expected to take his place, having played in 19 of OFI’s 20 league games this season, providing enough experience to cover the absence. Nuss was also missing in one of OFI’s biggest away wins of the season, a 2-1 victory at PAOK, showing they can cope without him.

With Panathinaikos struggling to score goals at home, their heavy schedule, key defensive absences, and OFI's strong away record, OFI +1.5 looks like a very strong bet. Even a one-goal loss still secures a win on this line, making it a well-priced selection given the circumstances.