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Jan 12, 2025
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Hearts head to Aberdeen on Sunday having finally put together some form in the league. Their only loss in their last 6 matches came away at Hibs in the Edinburgh derby and things finally look to be turning around for the Jambos. While Aberdeen started the season impeccably, going toe-to-toe with Celtic for the first quarter of the season, everything has unravelled for them as they have failed to win 10 matches in a row. The Dons have slipped from 2nd to 4th in the league during this spell and will be desperate to recover some form.
Aberdeen are rock bottom of the last 5 game form table. They have scored just twice and conceded 12 over these 5 matches. While they are the 4th best team in the league for goals conceded per match, they have only kept 3 clean sheets. This indicates that they seem to find a way to concede at least one goal in a very high percentage of their matches. This slide down the table won't have surprised those who were following their early season stats, as they consistently overperformed against their xG. On Hearts' last visit to Pittodrie in October, the Dons came out 3-2 winners despite only producing 0.69 xG to Hearts' 2.02.
Hearts have largely had a season to forget. After sacking manager Naismith, there was virtually no improvement in performances under the new manager Critchley until very recently. Having been dumped out of the Conference League group stage, all attention has turned to Premiership survival. Despite leading 2-0 in the 95th minute at Ross County two weeks ago, Hearts managed to surrender their lead and only take a point from Dingwall. They followed this match up with two impressive performances however, with a comfortable win over Motherwell and an excellent 1-0 win away at strong defenders Dundee United.
Hearts managed 33 shots at goal over their last two matches, and produced 2.80 xG across these games. They are clearly feeling more confident in attack despite losing talismanic striker Shankland to injury. Their form has actually seen an improvement seen Shankland's injury, and Hearts are finally looking beyond relying on his goals with his contract ending this summer. Their new partnership with Brighton and Tony Bloom has seen the first player brought in from the group in striker Elton Kabangu. Kabangu is expected to support promising striker James Wilson for the trip to Aberdeen as Hearts look to claim their first points from Aberdeen since 2016.
Aberdeen have also been active in the January transfer window, bringing in two players with strong pedigrees for the Scottish league. New winger Okkels is expected to go straight into the starting XI, as is Latvia captain Tobers. These additions are much needed for an Aberdeen side blighted by availability issues. Starting GK Mitov, CBs Molloy and Rubezic, top goalscorer Gueye, forwards Besuijen, Sokler and full back Milne are all missing for Jimmy Thelin's side. There is high turnover expected in the Hearts squad this January as CB Rowles, CM Devlin and ST Boyce are all expected to depart shortly.
Aberdeen are likely to start a slow but experienced CDM in Nilsen at CB alongside new signing Tobers. Aberdeen's only other option for the CB position is Dante Polvara, who usually operates as an attacking midfielder. Hearts' CBs are also likely to need rotation with Kent injured, new signing McCart being relied upon and Rowles with one eye on an exit. Given these dynamics, and the desperation both teams have to secure a win, our analysis suggests there is good value on backing the Overs line at Pittodrie on Sunday.
Best odds can be found at Bet365.
Full Track Record
Fixture | Market | Side | W-L | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 14, 2025 | Scotland Championship | Dunfermline Athletic FC vs Ayr United FC | Total Goals | Over 2 | 2.10 | 2 | 0 | Push | |
Jan 14, 2025 | Scotland Championship | Livingston FC vs Airdrieonians FC | Asian Handicap | Livingston FC | Livingston Fc -1.25 | 1.91 | 1 | -0.50 | Half Loss |
Jan 14, 2025 | NFL | Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings | Asian Handicap | Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams +3 | 1.80 | 1 | 0.80 | Win |
Jan 13, 2025 | NFL | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders | Asian Handicap | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 | 1.95 | 1.5 | -1.50 | Loss |
Jan 13, 2025 | NFL | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders | Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win | 1.63 | 1.5 | -1.50 | Loss |
Jan 12, 2025 | NFL | Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers | Total Points | Under 46.5 | 1.90 | 1.5 | 1.35 | Win | |
Jan 12, 2025 | NFL | Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers | 1st Half Total Points | Under 23.5 | 1.83 | 0.5 | 0.41 | Win | |
Jan 12, 2025 | NFL | Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos | Total Points | Over 47 | 1.8 | 2 | -2.00 | Loss | |
Jan 12, 2025 | Scotland Premiership | Aberdeen FC vs Heart of Midlothian FC | Total Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.88 | 1 | -1.00 | Loss | |
Jan 12, 2025 | NFL | Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers | Total Points | Under 44 | 1.90 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Win |
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