The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Washington Commanders in a playoff matchup where Tampa Bay holds distinct advantages on both sides of the ball.

Tampa Bay’s offensive unit is built to exploit Washington’s glaring weaknesses, most notably in the run game: The Commanders rank dead last in yards allowed per run play and are among the worst teams in EPA allowed per run play. Tampa Bay boasts a top-5 rushing offense, anchored by elite running back Irving, who is primed to exploit this porous run defense. Expect the Buccaneers to lean heavily on their ground game and controlling the clock. Additionally, Tampa Bay’s passing attack should thrive, especially in the intermediate areas. Even with WR Mike Evans facing CB Marshon Lattimore, who is returning from a hamstring injury, the Buccaneers have demonstrated the ability to move the ball efficiently without relying solely on Evans. Tampa’s creative system and depth of weapons will allow them to sustain drives and convert key opportunities.

On the defensive side, Tampa Bay has been dominant, particularly since their bye week. The return of Vita Vea has transformed them into a force against the run. Washington’s ability to generate rushing success will be severely limited, forcing them into predictable passing situations. Moreover, their Tampa Bay’s defense has leaned heavily on blitzing and single-high coverage schemes, which align well against Washington’s tendencies. Commanders QB Daniels has struggled significantly against blitzes and single-high looks, with his sack rate increasing and EPA per pass decreasing in such scenarios. Daniels’ primary weakness has been holding onto the ball too long, and Tampa Bay’s quick blitzes and disciplined pocket containment will force him into quick decisions. While Daniels has recently scrambled more frequently, Tampa Bay’s defensive schemes are designed to limit his effectiveness outside the pocket.

Furthermore, Daniels left the previous game with a leg injury, and while he is expected to play, his mobility and effectiveness may be compromised. Additionally, Washington’s limited receiving options and inability to stretch the field further hinder their offensive potential.

Tampa Bay’s balanced offensive approach, coupled with their dominant defense, positions them as clear favorites in this matchup. The Buccaneers can control the game through their run game while creating enough explosive plays through the air to pull away.

We see big value in taking the Buccaneers to win the game outright while also covering the spread.