The Rams and Vikings face off in a matchup that has shifted to a neutral field due to the Los Angeles fires. While the Rams lose home-field advantage, their home environment has been among the least impactful in the league, and the market has already adjusted for this factor.

Sean McVay’s game planning has already shown to excel against Brian Flores’ elite defensive schemes. In their earlier matchup this season, the Rams produced their most efficient offensive performance of the year. McVay’s ability to exploit mismatches and adjust to tendencies should give the Rams an edge here. The Vikings blitz more than any team in the league, with a staggering 67% blitz rate over the last four weeks. Stafford, however, thrives against these defensive tendencies as his level of performance increases versus heavy blitz rates, two-high coverages, and zone defenses. Moreover, while the Rams leaned heavily on the run in recent weeks, their passing game is far more efficient on early downs. Minnesota’s defense is vulnerable to well-schemed early-down passes, and the Rams are likely to adopt a more aggressive passing game plan tailored to exploit these weaknesses.

On the other side, while the Vikings have had success against zone defenses this season, their efficiency drops significantly in negative game states. The Rams’ ability to generate strong zone coverage and force opponents into unfavorable down-and-distance situations could limit Minnesota’s effectiveness. QB Sam Darnold has shown he can perform well in structure but struggles when forced into high-pressure situations or when the team falls behind. The Rams excel at generating perfect coverage and forcing quarterbacks to operate outside their comfort zones, which could expose Darnold’s inconsistencies.

The Rams have also shown they can perform in any game state, whether playing from ahead or behind. This cannot be said for the Vikings, who have struggled significantly in negative game scripts. Minnesota has run the fewest plays of any team in a negative game state, highlighting their inability to mount comebacks effectively.

The Rams’ strengths on both sides of the ball, combined with their ability to exploit Minnesota’s weaknesses, make them the clear play in this matchup. Sean McVay’s game planning and Matthew Stafford’s efficiency against heavy blitzes give Los Angeles a decisive edge. Expect the Rams to control the game through their passing attack and defensive adjustments, leaving Minnesota struggling to keep up. We see value in the Rams down +1.