The matchup between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills sets up to be a high-scoring environment, with several factors pointing towards the total going over.

The Broncos have a reputation for being an elite defense, particularly against the run, which could force Buffalo to lean on Josh Allen’s passing heroics. Allen thrives in these situations, especially against man coverage, where he leads one of the league’s most efficient passing offenses. Denver also blitzes frequently, but Allen’s ability to extend plays and perform under pressure mitigates this threat significantly. Denver’s shift to heavier man coverage since the return of defensive back Moss plays directly into Buffalo’s strengths. The Bills have been consistently outperforming their team total by an average of six points per game, highlighting their explosive potential and the market mispricing their offense on a regular basis. As mentioned, Allen is unmatched at extending plays and making big throws against tight coverage, a skill set that negates much of Denver’s defensive value. Against blitz-heavy teams like Denver, Allen’s success rate and efficiency soar, further supporting the expectation of a high-scoring output.

On the other side, the Bills pass defense has been highly volatile, ranking bottom 5 in EPA per pass play allowed since Week 14. This variance, combined with their tendency to funnel passes toward the middle of the field, creates an ideal setup for QB Bo Nix and Denver’s intermediate passing attack to exploit. Buffalo’s defense has also allowed the fifth-fewest yards to outside receivers, funneling Denver’s offense to operate through the middle of the field—a strength of Sean Payton’s play-calling. Expect Denver to lean on short, high-percentage passes and creative schemes to move the ball, keeping their offense competitive. Additionally, Denver’s offense has shown the ability to shred weaker passing defenses, and Buffalo’s injury-depleted unit fits the bill. The Broncos boast the highest-graded offensive line in pass protection, and their ability to keep the Bills’ pass rush at bay should allow Russell Wilson to find success through the air. Buffalo’s struggles against middle-of-the-field passing plays align perfectly with Denver’s offensive tendencies, providing a clear path to sustained drives and scoring opportunities.

All in all, this game has the makings of a back-and-forth shootout: with Denver’s run defense forcing Buffalo to air it out, Allen will be pushed to deliver in high-leverage situations. Denver’s high-variance pass defense and blitz-heavy approach set the stage for explosive plays. While on the other side, Denver’s offensive line will give QB Bo Nix time to exploit Buffalo’s defensive weaknesses, particularly over the middle. Both teams have coaching staffs capable of making in-game adjustments to exploit mismatches, ensuring sustained offensive success.

This is a sell-high spot for both defenses and we see value in taking the over up to 48.5.