This AFC North rivalry matchup between the Steelers and Ravens offers two solid betting opportunities: Pittsburgh to cover the +10 spread and for the total to stay under 44 points.

The last meeting between these teams closed with the Ravens as 7-point favorites, and Baltimore won 34-17. However, that scoreline was misleading due to several high-variance plays, including a fumble in the end zone and a pick-six that inflated Baltimore’s margin of victory. Despite the final result, the game remained competitive, and Pittsburgh was in it throughout until key mistakes swung the outcome.

Since that matchup, the Ravens have lost their top passing-game target, Zay Flowers, significantly reducing the efficiency and consistency of their offense. Meanwhile, the Steelers will have George Pickens available, who missed the previous game. Pickens’ presence provides QB Wilson with a legitimate deep threat and additional weapon against Baltimore’s increasing use of man coverage and single-high safety looks. The Steelers’ defense is well-equipped to challenge the Ravens and their defensive line can dominate the trenches, limiting Baltimore’s running game and pressuring Lamar Jackson into more obvious passing situations.

While the Ravens are likely to focus on the ground attack, Pittsburgh’s stout run defense is capable of containing their efforts. Historically, the Steelers’ defense has excelled at limiting scrambling quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson averages over 3 seconds to throw against Pittsburgh, a substantial increase compared to his season average. This extended time in the pocket works to Pittsburgh’s advantage, as their pass rush can generate disruptions and force errors. Moreover, the Ravens have a propensity for self-inflicted errors, including penalties and turnovers. Against a disciplined Steelers team, these mistakes could keep the game closer than expected.

Without Zay Flowers, Baltimore’s passing attack lacks a consistent downfield threat. Additionally, their tendency to increase man coverage and single-high safety alignments plays into Pittsburgh’s strengths. QB Wilson has shown the ability to create explosive plays against single-high looks, boasting a league-leading 15% explosive play rate in such situations. This dynamic, combined with the Ravens’ reduced efficiency through the air, sets up well for the Steelers to stay competitive. While the Steelers’ offense struggled in the previous matchup, the absence of George Pickens was a significant factor. His return provides a much-needed boost, and Pittsburgh’s coaching staff is likely to scheme around Baltimore’s defensive tendencies. While Pittsburgh may still struggle to score consistently, their defense and ability to avoid turnovers should keep the game within reach.

Furthermore, both teams’ strengths align with a lower-scoring game as Baltimore is likely to lean on their running game, which will chew up the clock and limit scoring opportunities, and on the other side Pittsburgh’s ability to contain the run and disrupt passing plays makes it difficult for Baltimore to score in bunches.

We see great value on the Steelers to cover the spread down to a number of +8.5 and for the total to stay under down to a number of 43.