The Houston Texans face off against the Los Angeles Chargers in the first game of the NFL playoffs. Back in Week 5, the market would have set a hypothetical line of Texans -5 for this matchup based on market ratings. Fast forward to the current week, and the line has shifted drastically by eight points in favor of the Chargers, an unwarranted swing.

Early in the season, the Texans’ offensive struggles stemmed from their over-reliance on early-down runs, which often led to predictable and difficult third-down situations. However, since Week 12, Houston has undergone a remarkable transformation, ranking third in the league in early-down passing rate. This strategic shift has allowed 2nd year quarterback C.J. Stroud to operate in more favorable situations and maximize his skill set. Stroud has flourished in this environment, showing composure, accuracy, and the ability to sustain drives. Stroud’s performance in high-pressure situations is also a critical factor. Having already gained playoff experience last season, he has proven capable of rising to the occasion in high-leverage games.

The Texans’ defense is the clear standout unit in this matchup, and they bring several advantages. Houston’s defensive line excels at generating pressure, ranking among the top units in sack rate now facing a slightly overrated Chargers offensive line that has its own flaws. Houston’s ability to deploy creative stunts and disguised coverages could significantly disrupt Herbert’s rhythm and limit the Chargers’ explosive plays. Moreover, Houston’s run defense has been a force all season, allowing minimal yardage and stifling opposing running backs. This strength is crucial against a Chargers team that relies on establishing the run to open up their passing game. Furthermore, the Texans’ cover corners are well-equipped to handle the Chargers’ receivers. With Herbert leaning heavily on McConkey, Houston’s ability to contain top targets and force secondary options into action could tilt the game in their favor.

Overall, the Texans have shown significant improvement on offense by embracing a more pass-heavy approach on early downs, creating an environment in which C.J. Stroud can thrive. Combined with their elite and well coached defense, Houston presents a strong case to cover the spread at home. The eight-point swing from the Week 5 line appears unjustified, making this a prime spot to back the Texans.